Environmental Defense Questions
Perryman Report: Moving Into Prosperity
On December 12, 2006,
Environmental Defense offered their comments
on the Moving Into Prosperity Report. In a three-page
memorandum they
discussed numerous concerns with the Report and gave reasons why
the Report should be subject to extensive peer-review before it
is used for decision-making purposes.
The Report’s Relies Upon A
Discount Rate That Does Not Accurately Reflect The Actual
Opportunity Cost of Capital To Private Road Developers.
The Report uses the Net Present Value (NPV) measure to
compare the benefits and costs of the TTC project.
Calculating NPV requires that all benefits and costs over
the project's life-cycle to be discounted to the present
using an appropriate discount rate. The Report mistakenly
assumes that a 3% real (inflation-adjusted) discount rate
reflects the actual opportunity cost of capital. While a 3%
real discount rate may be appropriate if the TTC project
were being financed entirely by the State of Texas, it does
not accurately reflect the cost of capital for a project
that is to be financed, in large part, by private road
developers. According to the TTC-35 Master Development Plan,
the private developer will pay all capital investment costs,
including approximately $5.9 billion in initial engineering.
Thus, the discount rate needs to reflect the private
developers cost of capital - not the State's. Present values
of costs and benefits 25 years in the future can be change
by more than a factor of 5 depending on the discount rate
used.