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The Long Hot Summer

May 02, 2007

by Paul Burka

One of the truisms about the Legislature is that the game is played in multiple arenas. You can lose in committee and win on the floor; lose in the House and win in the Senate; win in both houses and lose in the governor's office; beat the governor and still lose. We are about to learn this lesson anew on the transportation bill. House Bill 1892 will not become law in its present form. Governor Perry will veto the bill. He will never accept the primacy of the metropolitan toll authorities over Tx-DOT. I believe the Senate will fail to override the veto. Even if both houses override, however, the game is not over. Perry will call a special session on transportation. If the Legislature fails to send him a bill he can live with (which repeals the objectionable provisions of 1892), he will call another special session. And another. This is war. The Legislature can avoid the showdown by recalling 1892, in which case Perry could allow the stand-alone moratorium to become law. I don't believe the Legislature has the stomach for this fight.

Patricia Kilday Hart said...

Paul, I agree with your assessment that this is war -- and that it will be fought on many fronts. Don't forget about Steve Ogden's budget riders, which blow up CDAs. Where will the Senate end up on this issue? It is completely united against Perry, Williamson, TxDOT, et al on the current scheme for public-private partnerships. It falls apart on how to correct the problem. There will be a strong attempt to mount a veto override -- though the odds are clearly in Perry's favor, since he can start shooting hostages (members' bills) until he gets 11 votes to block an override attempt. He'll start with the 10 members who voted against considering Florence Shapiro's CDA bill (Averitt, Duncan, Fraser, Hinojosa, Lucio, Nichols, Ogden, Seliger,Uresti and Zaffirini). On the other hand, I would not underestimate the strong anti-Perry sentiment in the Senate. Perry's comments yesterday about taxpayers being left out of this session's work only fueled the urge (which has existed since the HPV order) to poke a thumb in the governor's eye. There are many members --probably a majority -- who think raising the gas tax is preferable to 50-year toll roads that postpone the financial pain to drivers not yet born. His comments that the Legislature has not taken care of taxpayers did not help his public relations problem in the Senate. As I mentioned in a previous post, Texas lawmakers get pretty emotional on the issue of concrete. I'm not sure that lawmakers wouldn't welcome a special session if they thought they could regain control of TxDOT. Cancel your June plans.

Paul Burka said...

Bubba Galt believes that I have been used. Anonymous thinks that I am making something up out of thin air. To Bubba I say, I don't mind being used to convey information as long as I believe that the information is accurate. To anonymous I say, I value being right too much to make things up. Do I have a hard and fast statement from the governor that he will veto the bill? No. Do I have a good reason to believe, after having talked to folks close to the governor, that he will veto the bill? Yes. Can I make a judgment about what the governor might do based upon my years of knowing him? I think so. On most policy issues, Perry does not really get engaged. But he has been fully engaged in transportation from the start of his governorship, and he thinks his policy is right, and he will not give in. If he keeps calling the Legislature into special session, eventually the Legislature will have to give in. This time they won't go to Ardmore. I-35 is too crowded. One more thing. Anonymous, if you want to believe that the Legislature is not allowed itself to be bullied, how many years have you been watching Texas politics? Talk is cheap in this world. They'll crumple like tinfoil before August.